Global oil markets depend on the strait's reopening. IRGC forces have threatened continued blockage. Analysts estimate 4–6 weeks minimum for full reopening even in a ceasefire scenario. The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil supply — its closure has already driven a 62% price spike from pre-war levels.

Elected March 8 following his father's death in the opening strikes, Mojtaba Khamenei faces a nation at war with fractured leadership. His position is considered structurally weaker than his father's, raising deep questions about Iran's strategic decision-making capacity and whether hardline factions or pragmatists will dominate wartime policy.

Qatar and Oman have offered mediation. US and Iranian officials have held indirect back-channel talks, but no formal ceasefire framework exists as of March 12. Trump's characterization of the conflict as a "short-term excursion" on Day 10 has complicated diplomatic signaling. Oil price volatility on Day 12 may reflect markets pricing in ceasefire probability.

House and Senate Democrats have formally demanded public hearings on the school bombing in Minab — where 160+ civilians died — and broader Iranian civilian casualties. Some Republicans have joined the call for oversight hearings. The Pentagon has opened a formal investigation into the school strike. Congressional authorization for the military action has also been questioned.