Brent $119.40 LIVE
|
US Gas Avg $3.48
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War Day 11
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MAR 11, 2026
Energy Crisis — March 11, 2026

The $120 Barrel
Anatomy of the 2026
Oil Shock

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the most severe oil crisis since 1973. Here's how we got here — and what it costs you.

Brent Crude — Today
$67
↑ from $67 pre-war · +78% in 11 days
US Gas Average
$2.98
↑ from $2.98 · up $0.50 in one week
Days Since War Began
0
US-Israel strikes on Iran · Mar 1, 2026

Section 02 — Geography

The Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz — a 33km-wide passage between Iran and Oman — carries 20% of the world's seaborne oil. Iran's closure has near-halted that flow.

SAUDI ARABIA UAE OMAN IRAN QAT STRAIT OF HORMUZ Persian Gulf Arabian Sea
🛢️
DAILY OIL FLOW — NORMAL
20M barrels/day
🚢
TANKERS IN TRANSIT
Active normal flow
⚡
% OF GLOBAL SEABORNE OIL
20%
⚓
SHIPS ANCHORED OUTSIDE STRAIT
150+

Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all Hormuz transits. At least 3 tankers were struck near the strait in the first 11 days.

Section 03 — Historical Context

50 Years of Oil Shocks

Five crises that shook the global economy. Click any bar to see what happened.

Section 04 — Personal Impact

Your Gas Bill

How much more will you pay? Adjust your driving habits below.

Miles driven per week 250 miles
Vehicle fuel efficiency 25 MPG
At projected $4.00/gal — your extra annual cost vs pre-war
Based on your current inputs
+$xxx

Section 05 — Global Impact

The Ripple Effect

From the strait to the global economy — who gets hurt, and how badly.

Nations
Shipping
Markets
⚓
Strait of
Hormuz
🌍 Nations — Immediate Shock ▼
  • Pakistan: emergency austerity measures, fuel subsidy cuts
  • Bangladesh: universities shuttered, fuel use restrictions
  • India: fuel rationing in 6 states, airlines raising surcharges
  • Japan: Nikkei fell 5%+, emergency energy cabinet convened
  • South Korea: accelerated LNG imports, reserve drawdowns
🚢 Shipping — Transit Collapse ▼
  • Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd: all suspended Hormuz transits
  • 150+ vessels anchored outside the strait
  • 3 tankers struck in 11 days by Iranian forces
  • War risk insurance premiums up 800% for Gulf routes
  • Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope adds 10–14 days per voyage
📉 Markets — Global Contagion ▼
  • Nikkei 225: -5.3% on March 9 alone
  • Airline fuel surcharges rising $15–40 per flight segment
  • Global food price index up 3% in one week (fertilizer, transport)
  • IMF model: sustained 10% oil rise = +0.4% inflation, -0.15% GDP
  • US 10-year Treasury yield spiked 30bps on inflation fears

Section 06 — From Well to Pump

Supply Chain Anatomy

Trace a barrel's journey from the Persian Gulf to your gas tank — and see exactly where the chain broke.

🛢️
Oil Field — Persian Gulf
Crude extracted from fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq. Production continues uninterrupted for now.
Operational
🔧
Loading Terminal
Oil loaded onto VLCC supertankers at terminals like Ras Tanura and Jebel Ali. Tankers queuing but unable to depart safely.
Backlogged
⚠️
Strait of Hormuz
The 33km chokepoint between Iran and Oman. Iran has mined approaches and struck 3 tankers. Effectively closed to commercial traffic.
🔴 BLOCKED
🏭
Refinery
US and European refineries drawing down strategic reserves. Alternative supplies from North Sea, West Africa, US shale ramping but insufficient. Processing delays 2–3 weeks.
Delayed
🚚
Distribution Network
Trucking and pipeline distribution costs rising. Diesel for trucks is up 42¢/gallon. Fuel cost embedded in every product you buy.
Higher Costs
⛽
Your Gas Station
National average $3.48/gallon — up $0.50 from pre-war. Analysts project $4.00+ by mid-March. Every leg of the supply chain disruption passes through to the pump.
$3.48 → $4.00+

Section 07 — What Happens Next

Three Scenarios

Click a card to flip it. Analyst projections based on historical precedent.

Scenario A
Quick Resolution

Ceasefire within weeks. Hormuz reopens. Markets stabilize.

~$80
Oil target by May
Click to see details →
Scenario A — Best Case
Quick Resolution
US-Iran ceasefire brokered within 2–4 weeks. Iran reopens Hormuz to commercial traffic. OPEC+ maintains production levels. Brent crude retreats to ~$80/barrel by May. US gas normalizes below $3.20 by summer. IMF projects minimal GDP impact (<0.1% reduction globally).
Precedent: 1991 Gulf War — oil spiked, then fell 45% within 3 months of resolution.
Scenario B
Prolonged Conflict

Hormuz closed 3–6 months. Recession risk emerges.

~$150
Oil target Q2 2026
Click to see details →
Scenario B — Base Case
Prolonged Conflict
Hormuz remains closed 3–6 months. Oil hits $150/barrel. Airlines cut 15% of routes. Strategic reserves depleted — US, Europe drawing emergency stocks. Global recession probability: 35%. US gas reaches $4.50+ by April. Food prices up 8–12% globally due to fertilizer and transport costs.
Precedent: 1973 Arab Embargo lasted 5 months — triggered stagflation that persisted for a decade.
Scenario C
Escalation

Wider regional conflict. OPEC fractures. Historic highs.

$200+
Oil — uncharted territory
Click to see details →
Scenario C — Tail Risk
Escalation
Conflict spreads to Saudi Arabia or Iraq. OPEC fractures along geopolitical lines. Saudi production disrupted. Oil exceeds $200/barrel — never seen in nominal terms. 1970s-style stagflation: double-digit inflation, rising unemployment. IMF projects -1.2% global GDP. Emergency energy rationing in Europe and Asia.
Analyst consensus: 15% probability. IMF worst-case model: -1.2% global GDP, +2.5% inflation.